## 9 April 2004

### Wrong again

As an occasionally-practicing guy, I do have a stash of Hugh Hefner's legendary publication — about twenty years' worth — in the next room, and once a year, by tradition, I review the young ladies who used to have staples in their midsections (Playboy switched to another binding method in the middle 80s), and select one of the twelve for Playmate of the Year.

And then inevitably I watch in bemusement as the magazine selects someone else. It is always thus; last year I noted that I had been wrong twenty times in a row.

I am not even slightly surprised to announce that for "twenty", you should now read "twenty-one"; my source deep within the Mansion even asked for my World Series picks, with the stated intention of betting on anyone I didn't select. (Red Sox over the Cubs in six, in case you want to do likewise.)

Of course, I know far more about baseball than I know about women, but you could replace "baseball" with just about anything from aardvarks to zymurgy and the statement would be no less accurate.

Posted at 9:21 PM to Dyssynergy

You know, even by random chance, you should have been right at least once by now. Even if you always just picked the same month.

Face it, you don't know jack about what other people think is the bestest.

Terkish Payne, and I don't say that like it's a Bad Thing.

Posted by: Terkish Payne at 1:23 AM on 10 April 2004

If it isn't natural it shouldn't be included in the magazine.

Posted by: Ricky Vandal at 5:34 AM on 10 April 2004

I've done the math, believe me.

Assuming purely random selections, the probability of not getting one right in a year is 11/12 = 0.916666....

Over two years, it's (11/12)^2 = 0.8403.

By the time you work this out to Year 21, it's down to (11/12)^21 = 0.1609; in other words, it's a better-than-five-to-one shot that I would have gotten one right by now.

Which, of course, I haven't. Admittedly, I am no fan of implants, which may skew the figures, so to speak, but obviously Hef and I are working from wholly different criteria, and, well, he's the one who gets all the girls.

Posted by: CGHill at 8:12 AM on 10 April 2004

Implants don't matter either way to me. It's what's inside that counts.. Oh wait, they *are* inside, sorta.. n/m..

Terkish Payne, coffee.. need coffee..

Posted by: Terkish Payne at 6:19 AM on 11 April 2004