The Finch Formerly Known As Gold

4 September 2004

And it's not even close

Dan Lovejoy has issued his Electoral College projection, and it flies in the face of all this "dead heat" stuff we're hearing from Big Media:

Bush 341, Kerry 197.

In this scenario, the Pacific Coast (except Alaska) and New England (except New Hampshire) go blue, and Kerry picks up Iowa and Illinois; Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey; Maryland and Delaware; and the District of Columbia — leaving a mere thirty-five red states.

Why is this happening?

Kerry will lose in November, not because America adores President Bush, but because the Democrats nominated a terrible candidate.

Of course, getting 63 percent of the electoral vote doesn't mean that Mr Bush will get anywhere near 63 percent of the popular vote, but I figure 50.0001 should be more than sufficient.

Posted at 11:13 AM to Political Science Fiction


Kerry will lose in November, not because America adores President Bush, but because the Democrats nominated a terrible candidate.

SPIN it, brother!

Posted by: McGehee at 3:24 PM on 4 September 2004

Spin? Moi? (doing my best Miss Piggy voice)

McGeehee- if you think it's spin, leave me a specific comment so I can correct it or refute. The pullquote above comes from my analysis of a Zogby poll. I wasn't attempting any gymnastics.

Posted by: Dan at 11:11 PM on 4 September 2004

The excerpt in italics in my comment would be embraced by the DNC spinmeisters with great enthusiasm after a Bush victory. My response was aimed at them.

They would like nothing better than to explain a defeat for their candidate as having nothing to do with great support for Bush, or with anything Bush has done as President or as a candidate. They'll happily smear their own guy as incompetent rather than admit they're actually losing on ideas.

Posted by: McGehee at 5:37 PM on 5 September 2004