The Finch Formerly Known As Gold

14 September 2004

Good-faith guesstimates

Brad Carson has pulled even with Tom Coburn in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Don Nickles. A poll of "500 likely Oklahoma voters" shows Carson at 39 percent and Coburn at 37 percent; calculated margin of error is 4.4 percent.

Michael Bates has been parsing the poll numbers, and this statistic he turned up is most interesting: Coburn leads in four of the five Congressional districts, but is trailing badly — 58 to 25 percent — in the Second, the district which he once represented and which Carson represents now.

I did a little poking around in the results [link requires Adobe Reader] myself, and found a few bits worth mentioning:

  • State Democrats are evenly split on the Presidential ballot: Bush leads 43-42 among Democrats, with 15 percent still on the fence. (82 percent of Republicans are already in the Bush camp.)

  • There's a gender gap, but probably not the one you think: Bush is doing better among women (63-25) than among men (56-33).

  • The lottery (SQ 705) might actually pass: 57 percent said they'd vote for it. Democrats favor it overwhelmingly, and Republicans tilt slightly towards it.

  • SQ 711, the anti-gay-marriage measure, is a two-to-one shoo-in.

Of course, anything can happen in the next few weeks.

Posted at 9:59 AM to Soonerland

TrackBack: 7:41 PM, 14 September 2004
» Through the Looking Glass Politically from Blog o'RAM
Husband noting that the gender gap is breaking in favor of Bush; "you security moms, don't you know Kerry is more attractive? And besides, don't you know Edwards is the most handsome candidate ever nominated for anything ever?" Wife; "Who......[read more]

I thought the interesting part was:

"The more educated, the more likely to support [Republican] Coburn -- Coburn leads 45-36 among those with a post-graduate education, 43-34 among college graduates, 39-37 among those with some college, but trails 28-45 among those with a high school graduation or less."

If we could just educate everyone, maybe liberalism would disappear or, at least, be properly marginalized. The fear of this possibility perhaps explains a lot of Democrat policies.

Posted by: Don at 5:58 PM on 14 September 2004

Some Democrat policies defy explanation. :)

Actually, I think the reason could simply be that the people with the higher levels of educational achievement have commensurately higher incomes, and have no desire to have their taxes jacked up by a Congress controlled by Democrats.

Posted by: CGHill at 6:08 PM on 14 September 2004