The Finch Formerly Known As Gold

4 October 2004

A deal yet undone

Steve Sturm at ThoughtsOnline offers the Top Five Reasons Why Bush Will Lose. To summarize: the President, while he's ahead, isn't all that far ahead, and there's this:

[W]hile Bush correctly reminds us that we now live "post 9/11" and that we need to act accordingly, he is still campaigning in a pre-2000 time warp. The Democrats have shown no restraint in doing anything, saying anything, sliming anyone and suing anyone — anything goes to defeat Bush. Bush has been slow to recognize this and slower to respond. This will end up being the single biggest factor in his defeat.

This presumes that people will respond predictably to any campaign maneuver, however shabby. I'm not so sure, though I admit that the number of particularly-egregious campaign tactics that have backfired is fairly small. (Everyone hates negative campaigning; simultaneously, everyone concedes that it works.)

If anything unravels the Bush campaign, it will be complacency: John Kerry is not going to fold up and slip away into the night.

Posted at 8:22 AM to Political Science Fiction