Looking for a miracle on 74th Street

Once again, there is wailing and gnashing of teeth over the possibility that the General Motors Oklahoma City Assembly plant may be shuttered after new UAW contracts come up in 2007.

The problem is twofold: the plant builds SUVs (three-row Chevy Trailblazers and GM Envoys), which don't have quite the market share they used to, and when the product cycle for this model runs out, GM hasn't assigned a new product to the plant.

My own thinking is that there will be a temporary shutdown, followed by retooling and a new product line, probably in 2008. But right now, what GM needs is a massive hit in the car market — they're holding their own in trucks — and the Pontiac Solstice/Saturn Sky roadsters can't do it by themselves. To do this, GM is going to have to break open its estimated $30 billion nest egg and build something, as the Apple corps might have it, "insanely great," a car so compelling that no one can ignore it — and, just as important, that they don't have to sell at $3000 below sticker because they're piling up on dealer lots.

Update, 21 November: It's dead, Jim.

Posted at 8:04 AM to City Scene