A dash of humility
And they work for the government, yet. Here’s a shortly-after-noon Forecast Discussion from the local National Weather Service office:
Persistence of the previous forecast along with 12Z model consensus will be the primary tools aiding this forecast. But given the unusually moist environment along with low [convective inhibition] and a small upper low influencing the region through midweek … forecaster confidence is below normal.
(Original in all caps due to TTY distribution.)
Of course, this is a difficult area to predict anyway, except during midsummer. (Sunny. Hot. High 99. Low 76. Rinse once every two weeks. Repeat.) And we’re kicking into May, traditionally the wettest month of the year, already up 4 inches over climatological projections.
Besides, it’s not like they never had to eat their words before.
Winston »
1 May 2007 · 6:28 am
Yeah, ya really have to watch out for those “convective inhibitions” when faced with a “12Z model consensus”. Does this really translate to “we ain’t got a friggin’ clue”?
McGehee »
1 May 2007 · 4:57 pm
Actually, it translates to, “if we could predict anything worth a dang, we’d be playing the stock market.”
(Full disclosure: my wife is a National Weather Service employee.)