Eighty-two plus
ESPN’s John Hollinger seems to think this little roundball team of ours is headed for the playoffs.
Seriously. As of this writing, Hollinger predicts an 82.5 percent chance that the Thunder will nab a playoff spot, and a 4.9 percent chance that they will Win It All.
Now admittedly, if the season ended in the next half-hour, OKC would have a playoff spot: their 11-9 record is tied with Houston for 7th place in the West, but the Rockets have beaten us, so we’d be seeded 8th. Hollinger, though, is thinking fifth, right behind Dallas (whom, at fourth, we’d have to play in the first round), and ahead of the Jazz, the Rockets and the Spurs. The Thunder, in his model, finish at 48-34, nine games behind the Lakers.
Of course, they could do better: Hollinger’s Best Case puts the Thunder at a startling 64-18. This seems unlikely. Then again, he also projects a Worst Case: 28-54. (For amusement value, I looked at the numbers for the New Jersey Nets, whom Hollinger figures for 18-64. If all the stars align, the Nets might make it to — well, not .500.)
Royce at Daily Thunder gives Hollinger’s narrative version:
The projection for the Thunder is a 48-win season and, quite possibly, a top-4 seed in the loaded Western Conference. For an 11-9 team, that seems optimistic — until one sifts through the Thunder’s first 20 games. They beat the Magic senseless, beat San Antonio and Utah on the road, and have been outclassed only once (an 18-point home whuppin’ by Boston on Dec. 4). In contrast, the Thunder own eight double-digit wins.
The Playoff Odds project a 37-25 mark the rest of the way for Oklahoma City because it has played most of the tough teams on its schedule already — the Thunder are done with Orlando and face the Lakers and Boston just once more each. Oklahoma City’s opponents have a .553 winning percentage when not playing the Thunder; by that measure, only four teams have faced a tougher slate. Inevitably, the schedule evens out, and in the Thunder’s case it does so with a much cushier docket for their final 62 games.
Then again, at 11-9 we’re at .550, which spread over 82 works out to … 45-37. Maybe it could happen.
