Where shall we put a team?
Portfolio.com/bizjournals has come up with a methodology for determining whether a given metropolitan market can support a major-league sports team, based on available personal income for that market, less whatever it takes to support existing teams there.
On this basis, there are almost enough dollars to support MLS soccer in Oklahoma City without affecting the existing NBA team, but not close to the amount needed for the NHL or the NFL. (The requirements for Major League Baseball are considerably stiffer, no doubt owing to the utter lack of controls over salaries; only two additional markets could support MLB.) Interestingly, Seattle, which currently has three teams, falls slightly short of NBA support, as Clay Bennett could probably have told you.
But $40 billion in personal income is enough, says this study, to support a team other than baseball. And that leaves the field open for Tulsa, which comes in a hair short of $40 billion. The NBA is unlikely, for obvious reasons; but Tulsa has the potential to support soccer or hockey, or even the NFL, were there a suitable venue for the latter. (The NHL would likely be very happy with the BOk Center.)
Of course, gaining a team requires league expansion, which is happening only in MLS — or a Major Market Fail:
Nineteen areas are overextended, with Denver, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa facing the worst problems. The income bases of these overextended markets are inadequate for their existing teams, let alone any new ones.
Not that you’re going to see the Tulsa Steelers any time soon.
CT »
10 December 2009 · 2:20 pm
Like any methodology, this one leans hard on current numbers as a baseline for future, and consistent, organizational behavior. Which simply ain’t the case. Ask any NFL-torch-carrying Los Angeleno how much gross personal income has mattered in the past 15 years…
I’ve followed the expansion/relocation game long enough to know that the sports leagues’ “methodology” boils down to 2 factors: how much money will we make now (ie expansion/relo fee), and how much money will we make in the future. If the dollars are right and the market is big enough to pony up for a stadium, nothing else really matters.
CGHill »
10 December 2009 · 2:26 pm
This particular study, in fact, suggests Los Angeles could support several NFL teams, though where they’d put them is anyone’s guess. The NBA’s Lakers and Clippers can schedule around one another, but most NFL games are on the same day of the week: Sunday.
My major issue with this premise is that the mere fact that a town can theoretically support a team doesn’t mean that it will. Then again, it’s difficult to run the numbers on that in advance.