The Finch Formerly Known As Gold

21 January 2007

They're all wet

Sex and snow, it is said, have the following in common: you never know how long it's going to last, or how many inches you're going to get. (I mention this because Sarah feels like she's been screwed, so to speak.)

The National Weather Service put out this graphic (click to embiggen):

WTF is the snow?

Time to wipe down the old crystal ball — it got pretty well soaked in all that rain yesterday — and start again.

Posted at 9:46 AM to Weather or Not

The suspense is why we Okies LOVE "The Weather Show" when it's on, usually with higher ratings than what it was pre-empting. That and the chance to laugh at the weather geeks when they get it wrong.

The meteorologists are all slaves to their computers, often to the point of neglecting basic data indicating the contrary. For example, last Tuesday and Wednesday single-digit lows were predicted because the computer models all calculated it. The weather geeks ignored the Monday and Tuesday evening dewpoints and wind directions, basic data which would have told them that the single-digit temperatures were impossible to reach.

I do my own forecasting based on satellite pictures from NOAA and data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, and yes I MISSED the forecast too. I had 3-5 inches of snow predicted based on data from Friday at 6 pm, but all I got was a driveway-clearing rain. Sometimes it's good to be wrong.

Posted by: Dan B at 1:00 PM on 21 January 2007

I made my call of 4.2 about 3 pm Friday. I was gratified to see it off by about 4.18. :)

Posted by: CGHill at 1:42 PM on 21 January 2007

About that mysterious "warm layer": Any chance the state legislatures of either of these states are currently in session? A bigger source of hot air is hard to find.....

Posted by: Kirk Leggott at 10:51 AM on 22 January 2007