23 October 2007
No oil for you
Or not much, anyway, according to this:
World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
Because we all know how peaceful it is in all those places where there's lots of the stuff. But to continue:
The German-based Energy Watch Group [released its study in London on 22 October] saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.
Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.
It occurs to me, sitting here on the edge of the Oklahoma oil patch, that we've been running out of oil pretty much ever since we started using the stuff, and as the phrase goes, when in doubt, predict that the trend will continue.
Now, I want everyone to remember these empirical predictions:
For I am predicting that both will turn out to be wrong, and there's nothing more frustrating than predictions that are used to dredge up panic which are then forgotten after the allotted time has passed and the predictions proved inaccurate. Well, maybe there are more frustrating things than that, but it's definitely in the top 3.
Paul Ehrlich, call your service.
I'm mentioning this here mostly because if Mr Gurri is right, I want to double the chances that someone will notice. (And if he's wrong, well, nobody reads me anyway, right?)Posted at 11:07 AM to Family Joules