The Finch Formerly Known As Gold

23 October 2007

No oil for you

Or not much, anyway, according to this:

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

Because we all know how peaceful it is in all those places where there's lots of the stuff. But to continue:

The German-based Energy Watch Group [released its study in London on 22 October] saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 — much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (44) a barrel.

And furthermore:

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day — EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.

It occurs to me, sitting here on the edge of the Oklahoma oil patch, that we've been running out of oil pretty much ever since we started using the stuff, and as the phrase goes, when in doubt, predict that the trend will continue.

Adam Gurri, however, thinks this is a load of dingo's kidneys:

Now, I want everyone to remember these empirical predictions:
  1. Oil production peaked in 2006
  2. Production will fall by 7% a year from now on

For I am predicting that both will turn out to be wrong, and there's nothing more frustrating than predictions that are used to dredge up panic which are then forgotten after the allotted time has passed and the predictions proved inaccurate. Well, maybe there are more frustrating things than that, but it's definitely in the top 3.

Paul Ehrlich, call your service.

I'm mentioning this here mostly because if Mr Gurri is right, I want to double the chances that someone will notice. (And if he's wrong, well, nobody reads me anyway, right?)

Posted at 11:07 AM to Family Joules


I'm nobody, and I'm reading ya!

I'm getting tired of this Chicken Little crap. Since I've been old enough to hear the "news," I've been hearing about overpopulation, the upcoming ice age, the upcoming global meltdown from warming, running out of oil, DDT kills bald eagles, and how we should all live like Trappist Monks to save the planet.

Actually not "we" in the sense that those proposing all these solutions are included, just everyone else but them.

Posted by: Jeffro at 12:03 PM on 23 October 2007

I always used to keep the Olduvai theory in my head which stated that world energy production peaked in 1979 and estimated that industrial civilization would not sustain itself beyond 2030.I read a recent British military report that said the middle classes here were going to turn violent as they start to fight for their crumbling lifestyles.The lifestyle apocalypse is coming. Book early to avoid disappointment.

Posted by: Emalyse at 12:11 PM on 23 October 2007

Predictions of an end to oil supplies have been around almost as long as there's been an oil industry. Don't trust me, though. Check out the pulitzer-winning book on the subject.

Of course, there's always Julian Simon, as well.

Posted by: Bigwig at 12:23 PM on 23 October 2007

We'll run out of oil right after we run out of doomsayers.

Posted by: McGehee at 1:02 PM on 23 October 2007

I'm mentioning this here mostly because if Mr Gurri is right, I want to double the chances that someone will notice. (And if he's wrong, well, nobody reads me anyway, right?)

Haha, I see that our approach to such matters is one and the same.

Ah, the joy of the blog. If you're right, you can point at it forever and be like "See? See?" If you're wrong, what are the odds that someone out there cares enough to drudge that back up?

Posted by: Adam at 3:30 PM on 23 October 2007

Start pointing.

Posted by: CGHill at 7:41 PM on 23 October 2007

"we've been running out of oil pretty much ever since we started using the stuff"

Indeed. By the way, theatre is dead.

Posted by: Mister Snitch! at 8:35 PM on 23 October 2007