25 April 2003
Out on a (fairly short) limb
By this time next year, there will be either two Shiite theocracies in the Middle East, or none.
I tend to lean toward "none", for basically the same reason as Weevil: "Double or nothing is a dangerous tactic." And the mullahs, I think, simply don't have the capacity to inflict themselves on New Baghdad while simultaneously quieting the Tehran street: they can take on the Sunnis, or they can take on their own citizenry, but not both.
This is probably not the time to bring out a "If You Ain't Muslim, You Ain't Shiite" bumper sticker, either.